Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2021
• April 2021

Cord blood background IL-12 concentrations are important for protecting children from clinical malaria ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2018
• July 2018

Ewan Mark Punam Susan Tasmin Cameron Connell Amratia Rumisha Symons EC MC PA SR TS BSc PhD MSc PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Director of Malaria Risk Stratification Research Assistant, Epidemiology Statistics Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Projects

Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2023
• March 2023

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2021
• December 2021

In recent years there have been reports of viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is endemic. VHF and malaria have overlapping clinical presentations making differential diagnosis a challenge. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2022
• April 2022

Malaria is a serious threat to global health, with over 95 % of the cases reported in 2020 by the World Health Organization in African countries, including Sudan. Sudan is a low-income country with a limited healthcare system and a substantial burden of malaria. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2022
• August 2022

Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5-year old children after hospitalised SMA. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2023
• January 2023

Urban population growth in Nigeria may exceed the availability of affordable housing and basic services, resulting in living conditions conducive to vector breeding and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Understanding the link between community-level factors and urban malaria transmission informs targeted interventions. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2024
• January 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in massive global disruptions with considerable impact on the delivery of health services and national health programmes. Since the detection of the first COVID-19 case on 5th March 2020, the Royal Government of Bhutan implemented a number of containment measures including border closure and national lockdowns. Against the backdrop of this global COVID-19 pandemic response, there was a sudden surge of locally-transmitted malaria cases between June to August 2020. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2021
• January 2021

Hot spots and clusters of both species were isolated in the central southern part of Bhutan bordering India ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2020
• April 2020

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. ...

• 1. Telethon Kids Institute
• Our research
• Reports and Findings
• 2024
• May 2024